How can Biblical faith be certain? Isn't this contradiction? Isn't the best we can do probable, not absolute?
Maybe it should be understood this way. Certainty is binary. Probability is a mathematical possibility. The two, while both valid, are not to be conflated. Certainty has to do with matters of being in a time frame. "Is" or "Is not", at this time, never or forever. Probability has to do with prediction "probably will". So the certainty of 2+2 being 4 is constant, not probable, for the entire period which 2 and 4 remain 2 and 4. I think, therefore it is certain that I am. If factors do not change, then certainty remains for the future. If factors change, then probability enters the conversation. Thus, if all things remain equal, if X is Y now, then X will be Y later.
Certainty is different from accuracy. It is certain that "the arrow hit the target". To counter this evident occurrence is to confuse categories by redefining terms and context, and not take the statement on its own terms. How accurately the arrow hit the target is a different discussion, based on establishing a standard of accuracy.
Faith, if defined as the appropriation of (acceptance of, dependence on) the certain, is Biblical faith. Acceptance of the probable as certain is not Biblical faith, but wishful thinking. Once you establish certainty, you can build confidently on it - the irony of Christian faith is that without certainty you cannot believe, Christianity is not a "leap of faith". This is what the case for Christ is all about - and it's not just a certainty based on historic facts, but present, ongoing, certain assurances and realities.